Hippo Thesis


Hypothesis: The market for residential and commercial solar panels will increase within the next few years as prices of panels decrease, demand for electric power increases, and protective import tariffs continue.

Who: Chinese photovoltaic (PV) manufacturers, customers (owners of businesses/residences), American companies currently in the PV business,

What: Need for inexpensive electrical power

Why: Desire to go green, sustainability, electricity is a significant financial expense, trend


Interviews

Interview 1: Homeowner, recent solar installation

Why solar?
            1. reduce energy cost
            2. environmental conscious

How much research?
Fair bit into DIY.  Effectiveness, how much needed, state provided net metering.  Didn’t do much research on companies.  Research on technology

What company did you choose?  Why?  What were your filters for choosing?
            Goldin Solar.  Good reviews, price point reasonable.  Looked at one other co

Timing?
Pricing wasn’t there years ago (initial construction).  No FPL net metering.  2019 was last year for max 30% tax credit


What type of system?  Grid-tie or off-grid?  Why?
Grid-tie/net metering.  Cost, batteries cost money.  Get 100% use of the power generated

Cost?  Or how long until investment pays for itself?
Roughly 10 years.  Including tax credit.  Just based on Solar Panel cost.  15+ years to recoup cost of structure

Interview 2: Homeowner, recent solar installation
Why solar?
Need to harvest and take advantage of as much natural resources to us.  Live simply.  Not to be tied to huge infrastructures.

How much research?
Dispersed throughout many years.  When first design of house, looking into solar panels.  No incentives at the time for use of solar panels.  Required by code to connect to FPL.  Even if wanted to produce own electricity, had to be tied.  Infrastructure and culture wasn’t ready 15 years ago.  Finally, this year FPL had netmetering and last year of 30% tax incentive.  Had saved for solar for a long time.  Planning: 15 years.
           
What type of system?  Grid-tie or off-grid?  Why?
Grid-tie with net metering.  Sell electricity w/ cap amount back to FPL.  Future: battery packs to store electricity FPL won’t take.  That will be phase 2.

What company did you choose?  Why?  What were your filters for choosing?
Goldin Solar.  Knowledge base and excitement for what we wanted to do.  Responsive when we had questions.  The right amount of experience.  Pricing right.  Full-house turn-key service (connect w/ FPL, tax incentive, etc.).
Found out about it through Broward Clip magazine ad.  The advertisement was appealing and professional

            Any other companies?
Two other companies.  Not as responsive.  One too low and other too high.  Don’t believe with going with cheapo… plan on charging for engineering change order, didn’t want surprise charger.  Other was 1.5 times price of Goldin Solar
           
Cost?  Or how long until investment pays for itself?
            10 years


Interview 3: Prospective solar customer
Why consider solar?
            Not dependent on utility company.  Budgeting cost.  Sustainable

How much research have you done?
Looking into solar on and off.  At one point, I wanted to make my own panels with individual cells.

When do you plan on purchasing your first array?
Soon after I buy my own house.  I’m renting for the time-being, getting an understanding of the area

What type of system?  Grid-tie or off-grid?  Why?
It depends where I live.  If in an area with net-metering, then I might tie the system to the grid.  However, I like the idea of being completely independent/off-grid.

Interview 4: Homeowner, solar business owner
What system do you have?
20.4kw, 68, 3 tesla power wall, last feb, complete June
2*200W circuit breaker panels
When was it installed?
            Ordered: Last February
            Completed: Last June
           
Why solar?
Power outages, trees falling, number of incidents.  How to remedy?  Solar or whole house generator.  Gave a lot of options.  Almost free energy as long as the solar panels

            How long until investment recouped?
                        10 year re-coupe, 20 years financed

How much research?
Looking at solar for years.  In Weston, it was older home.  Certain factors limit.  Older roof won’t work, roof needed to be replaced.  Cost come down quite rapidly now.  Wasn’t cost effective.  Ave Maria.  Plans are to be here for awhile.  “No brainer”  Wasn’t looking for it.  Neighbor got solar, talked to them, then decided pretty quick.
                       
What type of system?  Grid-tie or off-grid?  Why?
Grid-tied.  All three.  Power from grid, solar will produce power during day, excess put into grid, when cloudy take from grid.  FPL LCEC net metering.  Reason for batteries, look beyond consumption of house.  Need at least 1 battery to hold power during power outage.
           
            Will the solar not work without batteries?
                        3 phase electric inverter from DC to AC (microinverter).  Each panel has one
                        Multi-point Power Transformer
Due to grid-tie, power gets cut off by workers.  When you don’t have anywhere for the power to go, it’s hot.

            How does the inverter system work?
String inverter – individual inverter system, all connected to it.  Least expensive, most popular
Microinverter – shrinks tech to each panel, sends to controller which modulates where the power will go.  2nd popular, to be superceded by power optimizers
Hybrid (power optimizers) – string inverter with individual units, controlled by main head.  Between micro and string

            Efficiency of the system?
Tesla batteries – 90s 96-98%, guaranteed for 6000 cycles, lose max 5-6%, 13.5kW batteries, 5-7thousand kW.  Power entire house, 4AC units.  15people in house.  Dryer and 2 hot water heaters.
If lose power and power entire house, last 5 hours worst case scenario.  Optimally, load shedding – if grid goes down, split 2 200W panels into individual.  Drop off 2 AC and one heater.  Other panel run 2 AC units, water heater.  Need enough power to last from sun up to sun down.  20hours run without recharge
People miss the fact, they don’t need 2 solar panels and never pay FPL.  Need to know how to store power and how to distribute it.
                       
            Other considerations?
Whole home power generators.  Cheaper than buying solar initially.  Lose the investment into your home, still have to pay for electricity.  Solar takes the place of electricity.
                       
What company did you choose?
Started our own solar company.  Educate other people.  Save wallet, planet.  New solar that is emerging.  Florida home energy design.  Primarily education, installation as an option.  Lay out and transparency.  Help ppl with their decision and clarify jargon.
                        Solar installers for personal house: Go Solar - Delray

How satisfied are you with the solar panels?
                        Could use 1 more battery.  9/10 satisfied
           
How did you learn about solar and all the technical information?
Self-researcher.  Find things. Follow the development.  Read technical.  Understood electrical aspects.  Asked questions.

Any other information?
Demographic – 40-55 year old established households, medium income 70-100K, family, budget conscious.  Rebate

Interview 5: Current RV owner, future A-frame off-grid owner
            What is your perspective on solar energy?  Would you consider it?
Alternative forms of energy that must be utilized to conserve the planet, yes, I would

            Have you done any research?
Yes, due to fact that planning to build A-frame house to be completely self-sufficient.  Solar and wind highly considered

            Deciding factors
                        Energy output v cost

            Budget
For A-frame, 1 bedroom with open floorplan, 1000sqft on first floor.  No more than 15% of value of the home.  But I prefer to pay less than 1%. 

            Percentage
Wind and solar.  Currently Oregon is overcast but windy.  Not great for solar production

            Grid-tie or Off-grid?
                        Off grid.  Cheapest land ones which don’t have access to electricity
                        For heat, propane/wood
           
            What type of cell system?  Voltage/battery type?
I am 90% sure that the cell system I will choose will be 45% of the time give or take a standard deviation of 1%, deep cycle lead 6V batteries

All lighting 12V.  Appliances that run on 12V.  Use experience from RV.

Comments

  1. Hi Quinton,
    This is a very interesting opportunity you have here, not only because the idea is unique but also because I had no idea solar panel prices were coming down. It seems that your hypothesis is backed up by your interviews, since a number of them have recently converted to solar energy. Furthermore, you really went in-depth with your interviews, which should provide good feedback and research for your solution.

    ReplyDelete
  2. I like the approach you took to your opportunity. Very logical and legitimate as the need and demand for renewable energy through solar power increases. There is definitely an opportunity here for many jobs and people trying to find the best solar panels and market them to customers. Your interviews support your hypothesis and I think with more research you can find the solution to your opportunity.

    ReplyDelete

Post a Comment